Oct 27,2024
With the international window on the horizon, the BKT United Rugby Championship is beginning to take shape.
It would be a surprise for the leaders to slip up against the South Africans, particularly with several frontline Ireland internationals available, including captain Caelan Doris. Even if they do get caught by the tourists, it’s unlikely to make or break their season.
By late Saturday night, we’ll be one-third of the way through the regular season, enough of a sample size for teams to have a good gauge on what their targets are for the rest of the season.
For Munster, Connacht and Ulster, it’s a vital weekend as they cap off this opening block of six, although one of those teams faces a very different challenge to the other two.
Connacht and Ulster both take on Welsh opposition, with Connacht at home to the Dragons and Ulster away to Cardiff, and both will be favourites as they look to maintain steady starts.
Munster, on the other hand, face a daunting trip to the Sharks (3pm) in South Africa as they look to avoid a third successive defeat.
Just as they did in the last two seasons, Munster have been slow out of the gates. A win against Connacht at home in Round 1 looked to have settled them into the campaign, but a shock defeat against Zebre in Italy a week later undid so much of that hard work.
Eleventh in the table and already 14 points back from Leinster, that gap could grow even bigger if they end this block of games with just two wins from six.
The province have had their injuries to contend with, although not to the same extent as they did in 2022 and 2023. This season’s injury list has been more concentrated on certain positions, particularly at prop where they will have to rely on who Graham Rowntree has previously called "our two diesel engines", John Ryan and Stephen Archer.
Either side of hooker Niall Scannell, the two 36-year-olds will prop against a Test level Sharks front row of Ox Nche, Bongi Mbonambi and Vincent Koch, with Eben Etzebeth and Siya Kolisi also part of that South African pack.
Propping resources have been depleted to such an extent that academy pair Kieran Ryan and Ronan Foxe are the only available options on the bench for Munster. Foxe (below) will make his debut if called upon, going in at the deep end of what also happens to be Shark-infested water.
If Munster can survive at the set-piece and keep the lineout menu simple, there is solace in the fact that the rest of their line-up is strong enough to land some blows.
They’ve done it before in South Africa, winning twice at the Stormers and drawing with the Sharks on their title journey in 2023, before beating the Lions and Bulls at altitude last season.
And after an error-strewn final ten minutes against the Stormers last week saw them leave Cape Town with nothing to show for their efforts, Rowntree has called on his players to "own it" in Durban this afternoon.
"I love that expression. Own it and move on," the Munster coach said.
"We have done it before. You've got to be positive, you've got to look forward. Eradicate your errors. We've been here before, that's all we can do as a group."
For Ulster, Saturday night’s away day at Cardiff (7.35pm) will be the difference between a good start to the season and a middling one.
They were handed a tough slog in their opening four games; a tense win at home to the defending champions Glasgow Warriors, followed by two defeats in South Africa, before edging a thrilling Interpro with Connacht in Belfast.
Their 36-12 win against the Ospreys last week was their first stress-free outing of the campaign, and if they can sign off this opening block by defeating an out-of-form Cardiff at the Arms Park, it would cap off a very promising start to the campaign.
"It's a very important game for us. Four wins out of the first six matches would be quite satisfying. Three wins would be just sort of a pass," he said.
Murphy’s team sheet for Wales backs up that attitude. While there’s no Jacob Stockdale or Rob Herring, the Ulster coach has been able to welcome back Iain Henderson and Nick Timoney after they missed last week’s win, while Tom O’Toole, Cormac Izuchukwu and David McCann add further beef to the pack.
Looking beyond this month, the province have a treacherous run of games in the block ahead, welcoming Leinster to Kingspan Stadium before Champions Cup games against Toulouse and Bordeaux-Begles, and then two more Interpros against Munster and Connacht either side of Christmas.
Fortunately for Murphy, he will have five weeks to formulate a plan for that run of games, but those five weeks will feel very different if they come off the back of a defeat to Cardiff.
Connacht are in a similar situation as they prepare to host the Dragons in Galway (7.35pm).
Pete Wilkins’ (above) side have emerged as the great entertainers in the URC this season – for the neutral at least.
Through the opening five games the province have scored 132 points, with only Leinster, Glasgow and Edinburgh notching more, but that’s only half the story. While they’re scoring a lot, they’re conceding even more, a league-high 153 points and 20 tries, which comes in at just over 30 points and four tries per game.
There has been praise for their attacking intent, particularly when there has been such a clear shift towards the next generation after a summer clear-out and appointment of Cian Prendergast as captain.
But if they were to end the opening block of games with just two wins out of six – albeit with five bonus-points to jack up their total – their head coach admits it would be a hugely underwhelming return.
"I think in the context of this first block of games, certainly in-house for us, the importance of this game is absolutely enormous," Wilkins said of their meeting with the Dragons.
"If we win, if we win convincingly, you take that feel-good factor into the November break. I think it rounds off and probably shapes how you reflect on this first six games.
"If we don't deliver, then you get the reverse effect pretty quickly in terms of the perception of us and our ambitions this season, but also in terms of how we're simply feeling about ourselves.
"So this is a huge, huge game for us."
The province are heavy favourites, particularly on home turf at Dexcom Stadium, but that isn’t backed up by previous meetings. While Connacht won in Newport in each of the last two seasons, both were one-score games. Their last meeting in Galway was actually won by the Dragons in October 2021, which remains the visitors’ last URC win outside of Wales.
A similar outcome this evening would take the sheen off what has been an encouraging start to the season, and put an altogether different pressure on their meeting with the Bulls in five weeks.
