Nov 29,2024
The Republic of Ireland wade into the familiar waters of the play-offs in Cardiff tonight.
Beware: danger lurks beneath the surface of the pre-match pleasantries.
Two years ago the Girls in Green went into a winner-takes-all showdown against Scotland at Hampden Park as underdogs only to steal a victory that sent them to the World Cup.
Now they're back on that wobbly play-off tightrope; albeit this time the tie will be played over two legs, with the second game - crucially - in Dublin. That home advantage could be the grain of rice that tips the scales in Ireland's favour but there's no doubt they're up against it.
Rhian Wilkinson's Wales are slight underdogs given they're ranked four places lower and overcame relatively modest opposition in League B qualifying while Ireland were scrapping against England, France and Sweden. However there's a hunger about the Welsh that makes this a really tricky assignment; the type of hunger that only comes after pain.
Vera Pauw's Ireland team had it in Glasgow. A calamitous Aine O'Gorman own goal in Ukraine cost them dearly as they missed out on a place in the Euro 2021 play-offs. They were obsessively determined to right that wrong and they did it thanks to Courtney Brosnan's heroics and Amber Barrett's precise toepoke.
Wales know that pain too. Two years ago their dreams of reaching the World Cup were ruined when Switzerland grabbed a winner in the dying seconds of extra-time. That sort of hurt can be a potent weapon if you harness it correctly, which is exactly what the astute Wilkinson is trying to do.
She was respectful of the Irish in her pre-match press conference, but also pointedly reluctant to talk the up too much.
"I don't pay any attention to it," the Canadian said when it was put to her that Ireland are favourites.
"That's for someone else to bother about. I don’t play it up at all. We know that it is a team that is very even with us when we played them the last couple of years, it’s on us to show up."
Earlier, Gleeson seemed a little taken aback when she was told Wilkinson had described Ireland as being "absolutely beatable" - an assertion rooted in the fact Wales turned over the Girls in Green 2-0 in a friendly last February.
"I mean, I'm not really focused on anything that Rhian has to say at this point about any tags," Gleeson said. "My full focus is on preparation. We’ve been really clear about minimising any kind of distraction. That’s the first I’ve heard so it’s really only incidental. We just focus on ourselves."
The stakes are so high for Ireland. Gleeson's contract expires once the team's involvement in the Euro 2025 campaign ends, meaning if Wales prevail, she might not be sticking around. The 52-year-old has admitted she wants to stay, and she may well get a fresh deal even if Ireland fall short, but defeat would give the FAI a headache they could do without.
The age profile of key players also heightens the sense that they need to make hay while their stars shine. Kate McCabe (29), Courtney Brosnan (29) and Denise O'Sullivan (30) are all at their peak, a trio of difference-makers that elevate this team from being honest and resilient to an outfit potentially capable of breaking into the world's top 20.
Once those three start to decline, there's a concern Ireland will slide back towards some of the League B countries they swatted aside last autmun.
And then there's the old guard. Niamh Fahey (37), Ruesha Littlejohn (34), Diane Caldwell (36) and Louise Quinn (34), currently sidelined with a hip injury, have been fantastic servants, but they can't go on forever.
That leads to questions about talent development, proper backing for League of Ireland clubs in this post-Brexit world, and where the next McCabe or O'Sullivan is going to come from without the adequate support systems.
But that's for another day.
In the here and now Gleeson must find a way to progress. Nullifying the terrific Jess Fishlock would help. Wales were awful in the first leg of their semi-final against Slovakia, flattered by a 2-1 loss, and they toiled for a chunk of the second leg too. Fishlock provided the spark that saved them.
She's 37 now but the brain is as sharp as ever; her vision, movement and finishing elite.
Ireland are unlikely to be as naive as the Slovakians were in Cardiff. They are well used to living without the ball and might be happy to frustrate their hosts and wait for their moments to counter.
The first leg of a two-legged affair is often a phoney war, so it's reasonable to assume Gleeson will be pragmatic here.
It'll be cagey and combative, but the real thrills won't come until Tuesday's return match at Aviva Stadium when the jeopardy is much greater and this tie will, probably, still be on a knife egde.
Prediction: Wales 0-0 Republic of Ireland
Predicted teams
Wales: Olivia Clark; Gemma Evans, Hayley Ladd, Rhiannon Roberts; Lily Woodham, Angharad James-Turner (capt), Alice Griffiths, Ceri Holland; Jess Fishlock, Rachel Rowe, Ffionn Morgan
Republic of Ireland: Courtney Brosnan; Anna Patten, Caitlin Hayes, Megan Connolly; Heather Payne, Ruesha Littlejohn, Jessie Stapleton, Denise O'Sullivan, Katie McCabe (capt); Julie Ann Russell, Kyra Carusa
